Below are my 2018 college football rankings based on a model I developed. Will follow up with details around the model and may provide some of the code I used in R as well.
Rank | Team | Conference | Wins | Losses | Net Points | Close Losses | Blowout Wins | Blowout Losses | SOS Rank | Swanson Rating |
1 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 0 | 430 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 80 | 1.951 |
2 | Clemson | ACC | 13 | 0 | 412 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 75 | 1.817 |
3 | Notre Dame | NA | 12 | 0 | 198 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 77 | 1.486 |
4 | Oklahoma | BIG-12 | 12 | 1 | 222 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 48 | 1.455 |
5 | UCF | AAC | 12 | 0 | 275 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 106 | 1.453 |
6 | Georgia | SEC | 11 | 2 | 268 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 1.25 |
7 | Ohio State | BIG-TEN | 12 | 1 | 231 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 95 | 1.241 |
8 | Michigan | BIG-TEN | 10 | 2 | 231 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 42 | 1.218 |
9 | Fresno State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 11 | 2 | 276 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 114 | 1.082 |
10 | Washington State | PAC-12 | 10 | 2 | 183 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 73 | 1.008 |
11 | Utah | PAC-12 | 9 | 4 | 132 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0.944 |
12 | Boise State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 10 | 3 | 173 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 71 | 0.91 |
13 | Utah State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 10 | 2 | 290 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 125 | 0.9 |
14 | Missouri | SEC | 8 | 4 | 150 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0.897 |
15 | Washington | PAC-12 | 10 | 3 | 145 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 0.865 |
16 | West Virginia | BIG-12 | 8 | 3 | 173 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 43 | 0.843 |
17 | Appalachian State | SUN-BELT | 10 | 2 | 252 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 112 | 0.801 |
18 | LSU | SEC | 9 | 3 | 130 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 0.796 |
19 | Army | NA | 9 | 2 | 133 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 0.796 |
20 | Penn State | BIG-TEN | 9 | 3 | 175 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 56 | 0.781 |
21 | Cincinnati | AAC | 10 | 2 | 226 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 105 | 0.756 |
22 | Texas A&M | SEC | 8 | 4 | 100 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.726 |
23 | Iowa | BIG-TEN | 8 | 4 | 169 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 59 | 0.724 |
24 | Florida | SEC | 9 | 3 | 169 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 0.715 |
25 | Kentucky | SEC | 9 | 3 | 124 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 0.713 |
26 | Mississippi State | SEC | 8 | 4 | 205 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0.682 |
27 | Stanford | PAC-12 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.663 |
28 | Texas | BIG-12 | 9 | 4 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 0.661 |
29 | Syracuse | ACC | 9 | 3 | 156 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 103 | 0.623 |
30 | Georgia Southern | SUN-BELT | 9 | 3 | 114 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 117 | 0.591 |
31 | Ohio | MID-AMERICAN | 8 | 4 | 174 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 118 | 0.582 |
32 | Iowa State | BIG-12 | 8 | 4 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 0.578 |
33 | North Texas | CONFERENCE-USA | 9 | 3 | 175 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 130 | 0.547 |
34 | North Carolina State | ACC | 9 | 3 | 155 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 91 | 0.504 |
35 | Marshall | CONFERENCE-USA | 8 | 4 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 94 | 0.5 |
36 | Auburn | SEC | 7 | 5 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.496 |
37 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 7 | 5 | 153 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 72 | 0.489 |
38 | Temple | AAC | 8 | 4 | 131 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 98 | 0.462 |
39 | Oregon | PAC-12 | 8 | 4 | 122 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 68 | 0.447 |
40 | Buffalo | MID-AMERICAN | 10 | 3 | 131 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 115 | 0.445 |
41 | Troy | SUN-BELT | 9 | 3 | 103 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 109 | 0.423 |
42 | South Carolina | SEC | 7 | 5 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.362 |
43 | UAB | CONFERENCE-USA | 10 | 3 | 156 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 123 | 0.358 |
44 | Michigan State | BIG-TEN | 7 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0.345 |
45 | Arizona State | PAC-12 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 0.301 |
46 | Houston | AAC | 8 | 4 | 144 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 121 | 0.299 |
47 | Oklahoma State | BIG-12 | 6 | 6 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 0.283 |
48 | Northwestern | BIG-TEN | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0.27 |
49 | Purdue | BIG-TEN | 6 | 6 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 0.265 |
50 | Virginia | ACC | 7 | 5 | 81 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 102 | 0.264 |
51 | San Diego State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0.255 |
52 | Middle Tennessee | CONFERENCE-USA | 8 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 64 | 0.236 |
53 | Eastern Michigan | MID-AMERICAN | 7 | 5 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 107 | 0.22 |
54 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 6 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0.219 |
55 | Northern Illinois | MID-AMERICAN | 8 | 5 | -11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 0.212 |
56 | Arkansas State | SUN-BELT | 8 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 111 | 0.197 |
57 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 7 | 6 | -29 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0.188 |
58 | Memphis | AAC | 8 | 5 | 157 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 129 | 0.168 |
59 | Duke | ACC | 7 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0.149 |
60 | Wisconsin | BIG-TEN | 7 | 5 | 60 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 78 | 0.144 |
61 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 7 | 5 | 80 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 79 | 0.142 |
62 | California | PAC-12 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0.136 |
63 | Brigham Young | NA | 6 | 6 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0.13 |
64 | Florida International | CONFERENCE-USA | 8 | 4 | 119 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 128 | 0.127 |
65 | TCU | BIG-12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 |
66 | Toledo | MID-AMERICAN | 7 | 5 | 131 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 85 | 0.09 |
67 | Nevada | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 7 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 89 | 0.088 |
68 | Minnesota | BIG-TEN | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.082 |
69 | Boston College | ACC | 7 | 5 | 76 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 65 | 0.051 |
70 | Texas Tech | BIG-12 | 5 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 0.024 |
71 | Miami (OH) | MID-AMERICAN | 6 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 97 | -0.072 |
72 | USC | PAC-12 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | -0.075 |
73 | Air Force | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 5 | 7 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 82 | -0.101 |
74 | Louisiana-Lafayette | SUN-BELT | 7 | 6 | -15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 93 | -0.104 |
75 | Tulane | AAC | 6 | 6 | -26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.122 |
76 | Western Michigan | MID-AMERICAN | 7 | 5 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 90 | -0.154 |
77 | Baylor | BIG-12 | 6 | 6 | -35 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 47 | -0.156 |
78 | Nebraska | BIG-TEN | 4 | 8 | -15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | -0.167 |
79 | Ole Miss | SEC | 5 | 7 | -27 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 35 | -0.178 |
80 | Hawaii | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 8 | 5 | -43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 104 | -0.185 |
81 | Southern Miss | CONFERENCE-USA | 6 | 5 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 122 | -0.19 |
82 | Louisiana Tech | CONFERENCE-USA | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 120 | -0.199 |
83 | Indiana | BIG-TEN | 5 | 7 | -42 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 30 | -0.204 |
84 | Florida Atlantic | CONFERENCE-USA | 5 | 7 | -8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -0.21 |
85 | Colorado | PAC-12 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 52 | -0.227 |
86 | Arizona | PAC-12 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50 | -0.239 |
87 | Wake Forest | ACC | 6 | 6 | -9 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 67 | -0.247 |
88 | Wyoming | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 6 | 6 | -16 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 54 | -0.258 |
89 | Kansas State | BIG-12 | 5 | 7 | -35 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 34 | -0.265 |
90 | Maryland | BIG-TEN | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 44 | -0.326 |
91 | Louisiana-Monroe | SUN-BELT | 6 | 6 | -62 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 108 | -0.344 |
92 | South Florida | AAC | 7 | 5 | -28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 113 | -0.361 |
93 | Charlotte | CONFERENCE-USA | 5 | 7 | -59 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 70 | -0.37 |
94 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 6 | 6 | -11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 60 | -0.38 |
95 | Florida State | ACC | 5 | 7 | -115 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17 | -0.472 |
96 | Tennessee | SEC | 5 | 7 | -62 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -0.506 |
97 | Southern Methodist | AAC | 5 | 7 | -58 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 40 | -0.514 |
98 | UCLA | PAC-12 | 3 | 9 | -114 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -0.523 |
99 | Liberty | NA | 6 | 6 | -43 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 110 | -0.536 |
100 | Navy | AAC | 3 | 9 | -104 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -0.605 |
101 | Kansas | BIG-12 | 3 | 9 | -74 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 55 | -0.697 |
102 | UNLV | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 4 | 8 | -102 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 58 | -0.718 |
103 | Akron | MID-AMERICAN | 4 | 8 | -99 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 69 | -0.736 |
104 | Coastal Carolina | SUN-BELT | 5 | 7 | -78 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 99 | -0.768 |
105 | Tulsa | AAC | 3 | 9 | -66 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100 | -0.803 |
106 | Illinois | BIG-TEN | 4 | 8 | -161 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 84 | -0.827 |
107 | East Carolina | AAC | 3 | 9 | -175 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 62 | -0.832 |
108 | North Carolina | ACC | 2 | 9 | -79 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 51 | -0.843 |
109 | Ball State | MID-AMERICAN | 4 | 8 | -99 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 61 | -0.856 |
110 | Old Dominion | CONFERENCE-USA | 4 | 8 | -61 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 116 | -0.88 |
111 | Massachusetts | NA | 4 | 8 | -121 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 87 | -0.901 |
112 | New Mexico | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 3 | 9 | -115 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 53 | -0.988 |
113 | Georgia State | SUN-BELT | 2 | 10 | -162 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 37 | -0.997 |
114 | Arkansas | SEC | 2 | 10 | -157 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | -1.009 |
115 | San Jose State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 1 | 11 | -184 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | -1.032 |
116 | Oregon State | PAC-12 | 2 | 10 | -235 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1.048 |
117 | Colorado State | MOUNTAIN-WEST | 3 | 9 | -167 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 88 | -1.068 |
118 | Western Kentucky | CONFERENCE-USA | 3 | 9 | -81 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 126 | -1.076 |
119 | South Alabama | SUN-BELT | 3 | 9 | -175 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 38 | -1.116 |
120 | Texas State | SUN-BELT | 3 | 9 | -95 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 127 | -1.147 |
121 | Bowling Green | MID-AMERICAN | 3 | 9 | -188 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 96 | -1.223 |
122 | UTSA | CONFERENCE-USA | 3 | 9 | -204 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 76 | -1.251 |
123 | Rice | CONFERENCE-USA | 2 | 11 | -222 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 86 | -1.28 |
124 | Louisville | ACC | 2 | 10 | -292 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -1.307 |
125 | New Mexico State | NA | 3 | 9 | -193 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 119 | -1.339 |
126 | Central Michigan | MID-AMERICAN | 1 | 11 | -148 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 101 | -1.358 |
127 | Rutgers | BIG-TEN | 1 | 11 | -215 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 36 | -1.377 |
128 | Kent State | MID-AMERICAN | 2 | 10 | -153 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 92 | -1.462 |
129 | UTEP | CONFERENCE-USA | 1 | 11 | -181 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 124 | -1.614 |
130 | Connecticut | AAC | 1 | 11 | -339 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 33 | -1.682 |